Equal-weighted benchmark, pre-flag equity drift, Merton Distance-to-Default, and FF3 factor adjustment. Does −22.4% survive scrutiny?
Our tool flagged Chevron's FY2024 10-K at 1.7× the distress ceiling. We published the analysis, tracked what happened, and updated the record. The Hess deal closed. Venezuela operations ended. The stock hit an all-time high.
The backtest across 7069 flag events. How the signal is constructed, what it predicted, and where it missed.
SVB, Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, Rite Aid. What the filings said, why the scores were high, and what happened next.
The filing date was February 24. The FDIC arrived March 10. What happened in between, and what that window means.
Determinism, cross-sectional comparison, no context window — five reasons the tool most people reach for was the wrong one here.